S&P World Mobility tasks that US auto gross sales in March
will crest over 1.4 million models – simply the second time since Could
2021 that month-to-month quantity has reached this stage.

Key Takeaways

• US Auto Gross sales for March 2024 projected at 1.47 million
  models
• Vendor marketed inventories have been as much as 2.62 million
  models
• March BEV share anticipated to succeed in 8%
• S&P World Mobility tasks calendar-year 2024 gentle
  car gross sales quantity of 15.96 million models, a 3% improve from the
  2023 tally

With quantity for the month projected at 1.47 million models, March
2024 US auto gross sales are estimated to translate to an estimated gross sales
tempo of 15.8 million models (seasonally adjusted annual charge: SAAR).
This might deliver the SAAR common within the first quarter of the 12 months
to a stage of 15.5 million models. Whereas progress from a year-ago
studying of 15 million models, it will mirror a step down from the
15.7 million unit studying of the fourth quarter of 2023, reflective
of the unstable nature of the present auto demand surroundings.

“With stock rising, incentives rising, and quarter-end
gross sales targets to be met, March gross sales quantity might be comparatively
constructive, rising to over 1.4 million models for simply the second time
previously 34 months,” stated Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P World Mobility. “Nevertheless, because the second quarter of
2023, the tempo of gross sales has been in a protracted holding interval,
given the present buy surroundings dealing with auto shoppers.
Excessive-interest charges, slowly receding car costs, and unsure
financial circumstances proceed to push towards any constant upshift
for demand ranges.”

Concerning stock traits, Matt Trommer, affiliate director of
Market Reporting at S&P World Mobility stated, “Initially
of March, accessible seller marketed inventories have been as much as 2.62
million models, a rise of 56% over final 12 months and up 5% in contrast
to the start of February 2023. Mannequin-year (MY) 2024 automobiles
represented 84% of that stock, so pockets of MY2023 automobiles
stay, organising the potential for added spring clearance
exercise.”

The S&P World Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 displays
sustained, however extra reasonable development ranges for gentle car gross sales.
Manufacturing ranges are anticipated to proceed to develop, particularly
early within the 12 months as some automakers look to proceed to restock in
the wake of manufacturing shutdowns late in 2023 and respectable December
2023 gross sales quantity.

“Advancing manufacturing ranges set the stage for incentives and
stock to proceed to develop, probably engaging new car
consumers who stay on the sidelines resulting from increased rates of interest,
however it will likely be a bumpy journey and month-to-month gross sales volatility is
probably,” stated Hopson. “S&P World Mobility tasks
calendar-year 2024 gentle car gross sales quantity of 15.96 million
models, a 3% improve from the 2023 tally.”

Continued growth of battery-electric car (BEV) gross sales
stays an assumption within the longer-term S&P World Mobility
gentle car gross sales forecast. Within the rapid time period, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is
anticipated to succeed in 8%, much like the month prior studying as
automakers, sellers, and shoppers proceed to digest the modifications
to IRA Federal tax credit to start the brand new 12 months. BEV share is
anticipated to advance over the following a number of durations, pending the
rollouts of automobiles such because the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda
Prologue, and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market introductions
over the primary half of 2024.

This text was printed by S&P World Mobility and never by S&P World Scores, which is a individually managed division of S&P World.